Soft wheat in Morocco: harvest retention and the import dilemma

As of July 2, 2026, Morocco has collected barely 3 million quintals of soft wheat. That figure barely scratches the official target for the 2025-2026 campaign. Farmers are hoarding the harvest on their farms. Millers are denouncing the blockade. The government is weighing whether to keep customs duties in place until the end of August. The Kingdom’s food security is once again under strain.

The data, published by Medias24 on July 3, has set off alarm bells in the agri-food sector. The harvest runs from June to July, and this pace suggests a severe shortfall. The question hanging over the Spain-Morocco axis: will the government open the door to imports to fill the gap, or will farmers eventually bring their grain to collection centers before prices drop?

Farmers Hoarding the Harvest: A Strategy of Resistance

Moroccan farmers have decided not to deliver their soft wheat to collection centers. According to Medias24, the hoarding is deliberate. It’s not just about drought. It’s a calculated move: producers are betting the government will raise the reference price, or that scarcity will drive up market prices.

The National Federation of Milling (FNM) is publicly denouncing the situation. Millers claim “farmers are holding back the harvest” and are urging the government to “loosen or open imports” of soft wheat to prevent shortages at flour mills.

The tension between farmers and millers is nothing new. In Morocco’s wheat value chain, farmers want the highest possible price. Millers need cheap, available wheat. The government must balance farmer profitability —a key rural electoral base— with the price of bread for urban consumers, a crucial factor for social stability.

The Government’s Dilemma: Protect the Producer or Open Imports

The Moroccan government is considering keeping customs duties on soft wheat in place until the end of August 2026, according to government sources cited by Medias24. This move would protect farmers who are hoarding the harvest but would leave millers without raw materials for critical weeks.

Traditionally, Morocco imposes high customs duties on imported wheat to protect domestic producers. However, when the national harvest falls short, the government temporarily reduces or suspends these tariffs to allow massive imports and prevent shortages.

The current scenario is delicate. If the government keeps duties in place until the end of August, millers will have to wait weeks to import cheaper wheat. If it removes them earlier, farmers will see the price of domestic wheat fall due to competition from imported grain. The final decision will determine the course of the campaign and the stability of the bread market.

Structural Drought Worsens the Challenge

Morocco has been hit by consecutive years of drought that have drastically reduced domestic cereal production. Rainfall has been consistently below the historical average since 2018. Reservoirs have reached critical levels, below capacity in several regions.

The 2023-2024 agricultural campaign was described as the worst in decades by the Ministry of Agriculture. Although the 2024-2025 campaign showed a partial recovery, soft wheat remains the most vulnerable crop due to its reliance on rain-fed farming.

Morocco’s annual consumption of soft wheat is high, and most of it is covered by imports. If this year’s harvest falls short of the target, the deficit will be even larger.

What’s at Stake for Investors and Businesses

For companies operating in Morocco and the Spain-Morocco axis, this situation creates both opportunities and risks across several sectors. Grain traders with access to Ukrainian, French, or Russian wheat could find attractive arbitrage if the government opens imports. Industrial mills, on the other hand, face pressure on margins if wheat prices rise, and the risk of shutdowns if raw materials run out.

Industrial bakeries could pass on costs to consumers, leading to a contraction in demand if bread prices rise. Logistics operators with silos and transport fleets have a clear opportunity: the need for storage and transportation will increase, whether the domestic harvest is collected or massive imports arrive.

For investors in Morocco’s agro-industrial sector, the recommendation is to hedge positions with futures contracts. Uncertainty over raw material costs will persist until the government makes a clear decision on customs duties.

Precedent from Previous Crises

Morocco has shown its ability to respond in past crises. During the COVID-19 pandemic and after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the government quickly mobilized strategic stocks and coordinated massive imports to prevent shortages. ONICL manages strategic food security reserves and has experience handling tense situations.

However, the structural drought adds an extra layer of complexity. The Plan Génération Green 2020-2030 aims to reduce dependence on rain-fed agriculture and promote irrigation, but results are medium-term. In the meantime, each agricultural campaign is a tug-of-war between nature, farmers, and millers.

The government’s decision on customs duties will be the first indicator of where the campaign is headed. If it keeps tariffs in place until the end of August, it’s betting that farmers will eventually bring the harvest to collection centers. If it removes them earlier, it assumes the domestic harvest won’t be enough and that imports are the only way to keep bread affordable.

Investors and companies operating in Morocco should keep a close watch on the coming weeks. The resolution of this tension will define not only the price of bread but also the business conditions for the entire agri-food chain in the Kingdom.